In February the decline trend in retail trade considerably accelerated

Retail sales decreased in February in most store groups in comparison with the time a year ago, only the retail sale of used goods in stores and other retail sale outside stores increased by 18% during the year. Decrease in the income of the population and growing uncertainty about their future forces people with lower income levels return to used goods and shopping in the markets.

 

Sale of food products and drinks in unspecialised stores decreased by one-tenth in February in annual comparison, the decline was 4% in comparison with the previous month (in January -21%). It is nevertheless evident that people have started to increasingly save on food. Raw food products are preferred for cooking at home.

 

The annual decrease trend in the retail trade of household goods, ironware and construction materials accelerated in February to 30%, the decrease was much less in comparison with January, however (-8%). The much tougher borrowing conditions but also the considerably weaker certainty about the future and the narrower construction market have forced people to save costs related to that commodity group in particular.

 

The decline trend in the retail trade of textile products, clothes, footwear and leather goods has followed the rate of retail trade in general in the recent months; in annual comparison the sale of the above-mentioned goods decreased by 15%, in monthly comparison the decrease was 12%.

 

The low ebb in car sales persisted also in February. In comparison with the time one year ago. the wholesale and retail trade in vehicles and motorcycles and their repair services decreased by 29% in constant prices, the decrease remained on the same level with January. According to car registration statistics, initial registration of new cards decreased by 64% in February in comparison with the time one year ago. The annual decrease trend in the sale of motor fuel accelerated to 17% in February, the sale of fuel decreased by 11% in comparison with the previous month.

 

The results of the survey conducted by the Estonian Institute of Economic Research in March showed that the feeling of certainty indicator somewhat improved in trade, being higher than the levels of both January and February.

 

The main improvement was evident in expectations of the sales of the next three months where the index increased from -38 to -19. In the next three months both the decrease in prices and the decrease in the number of employees will continue.

 

Although the first signs of improvement can be seen, no far-reaching conclusions can be drawn on it.

 

Evaluations of consumers were not so optimistic but at the same time the decline in the consumer certainty indicator was slower in March than in February in comparison to January. In March the consumer certainty indicator was -37 (in Febr. -35). For faster recovery of retail sales the consumer certainty should turn to an increase. As long as people are uncertain about their income and keeping their jobs, retail trade will not turn to the positive direction either.